Time for a Prediction About Facebook

July 30, 2007 / by domsumners

OK - my views on FaceBook as a future media.

I won't pretend this is based on any amazing piece of research i have seen from the US or a McKinsey study of the growth of social networking phenomena - but just

  • prompted by a result of reading Tim's thoughts on it
  • and i was in a reflective mood having finished Harry Potter (I still regard any discussion of this book for a week or so as sacrilege as it may spoil enjoyment of others - i used a very bad profanity at one of my colleagues who started discussing it last Monday morning - sorry Mum!)
I enjoy and use Facebook, its user stats are exploding it  - it is full of useful functionality - it serves both fun and practical purposes but....
  • I think its a massive fad
  • Its too "public" for serious business purposes
  • Its traffic will peak, plateau and decline
  • Converting its traffic into response for things such as job, home, holiday, car ads will prove an incredibly difficult task
  • Something else will come along soon and displace it as the talked about Web 2.0 thing
Anyway - i am sure the owners are quaking in their boots at my negative analysis - i could well be wrong, it has happened many, many times in the past.

3 comments on Time for a Prediction About Facebook

  • richpurvis said 1 years ago
    Yet again Mr S, I think your right, I remember having a meeting with the original social network fad FRU and they claimed to have access to 12 million people therefore could eclipse anything TJ or monster could do with their pitiful 2 million users and we know what happened there! I've spent about a month on facebook using it's shiny apps but now it's just another online rolladex. But remember this my friend Facbook don't claim to be a recruitment channel in fact like myspace are quite uninterested in taking bookings from Portsmouth Uni for £1500 a pop. It's us who is labeling them as the next new thing then pushing them off the pedestal we've put them on.
  • domsumners said 1 years ago
    very good point Rich - its us as people who wish to access this audience for our grubby needs than the site wanted to position itself as such. But we are now all well aware that no matter how philanthropic an online business starts as - at some point relatively early on - they try and monetize the traffic and commercially exploit the traffic - ie FRUjobs or probably a better example Google
  • richpurvis said 1 years ago
    I can't help but laugh that as we are talking about, slagging off facebook and google. Good old google adwords are throwing facebook ppc's at us. What happen is if I write dating, dating dating dating dating dating dating!

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